Thursday, 21 October 2010

Physicist: Global Warming 1980-2008 caused by Sun, not Man

source: hockeyschtick
by: Horst Borchert

Dr. Horst Borchert, the Director of the Department of Physics of the Johannes-Gutenberg Institute, Mainz, Germany, presented a paper, Using Satellite Measurements to study the Influence of Sun Activity on Terrestrial Weather at the Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, Colorado earlier this year. Dr. Borchert finds from satellite measurements that global warming between about 1980 to 2008 was "not anthropogenic but caused by natural activities of the Sun’s surface." He relates changes of the solar magnetic field to cosmic rays and cloud formation (the cosmic ray theory of Svensmark et al) and to effects on the North Atlantic Oscillation, which affects weather phenomena around the globe.

Using Satellite Measurements to study the Influence of Sun Activity on Terrestrial Weather

Abstract: The time rows of Terrestrial Climate Components (TCC) since the Eighties have shown some strong Influences by Extraterrestrial Components with the beginning of the 22. Sunspot period. Therefore the increase of ground near temperature on earth and oceans (2 –3 m above ground), called Global Temperature, during the warming period between about 1980 and 2008 seems to be not anthropogenic but caused by natural activities of Sun’s surface.

Some Extraterrestrial Components (EC) can be destined by measurements on the earth’s surface directly or indirectly: (a) The Reduction of Cosmic Rays by the magnetic fields of the sun-winds (Forbush-Reduction) by measuring the neutrons, which are secondary particles (Höhenstrahlung) of Cosmic Rays, and (b) the influence of the sun-winds on earths weather system by calculating the Sun-Wind-Index (SWI) from the difference of magnetic field in antipodal Stations.

The link between TCC and EC is the “Svensmark – Effect”. It describes the formation of terrestrial clouds by the secondary particles of Cosmic Rays (Similar to Wilson’s Fog Chamber 1911). This effect modulates the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO). It can be shown by using measured data, that the secondary particles of cosmic rays are controlling the NAO and therefore the weather in the Northern Hemisphere especially very strong since 1975. GOES – Satellites, geostationary stationed at about 35,800 km (22,300 miles) in equatorial plane above earth, measure the components of Sun-Wind that earth is exposed.

These components are Flares, protons, alphas, electrons and magnetic fields. By correlating these extraterrestrial as well as terrestrial components, one can determine the strength and impact of sun’s activity on the weather on the earth. Applying this method by using the by NOAA published Data it will be explained that the warming period on earth, that started about 1980 and seems to be ending about 2010, in deed was caused and modulated by sun’s activity: Since 1975 GOES Satellites measured increasing strong flux of solar protons, which penetrated earths magnetic field and influenced the stratospheric O3 layer. Especially in 1989 the components of sun-winds caused strong disturbances of electricity and telemetric networks in the Northern Hemisphere.

The magnetic fields reduced the Intensity of Cosmic Rays (Forbush Reduction) in this year partly of about 30% at 56 ° N (Moskau). From 1980 to 2009 Cosmic Rays and Cloudiness, which are delayed about 10 to 12 month, correlated with K~0,8 (Svensmark-Effect). The NAO correlates with Cosmic Rays (K~0,7) and confirms these connections between extraterrestrial and terrestrial components. That leaded finally since 1990 to increasing Sunshine-Duration of about 0,5 h/d and global rays of about 10 W/m2 in yearly averages around 50° N (Mainz) in Central Europe during this warming period.

The ground near temperature increases of about 0,9 +-2 °C of the Yearly Averages. The Global Temperature increased since about 1980 more continuously to about 0,6 °C in 2006. With the end of sun’s activity in December 2006 (Sunspot Nr. 930 with “sun-tsunami”) the increase of ground near Temperature ended and weather started to become colder again in winter 2009 to 2010 in Europe and USA. Even the Sun-Wind-Index confirmed these development, it decreased very quick to values beneath 10 nTesla, which was never found since 1910, when it was very cold.

That means, that Measurements of sun wind components by Satellites like GOES help to understand and to forecast terrestrial weather development.

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